FOUS11 KWBC 030804 QPFHSD Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 304 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 03 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 06 2026 ...Great Lakes... Day 1... A weak system moving through the Great Lakes this morning will spread light snow showers over the region with some lake effect snow following in its wake. Snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are likely across portions of the U.P. of Michigan and near Watertown, NY. WPC probabilities of >4" are low (10-20%). Day 3... A 140kt jet over south central Canada Thursday will help push a warm front through the western Great Lakes, followed by a strong arctic cold front that will cross into the region by Friday morning. This will bring a period of snow focused on Michigan which will lie near/north of the stronger height falls along the fronts. Through 12Z Friday, generally light snow but increasing winds over the region will usher in much colder air. WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow through 12Z Fri are low (10%) but blowing snow could be the bigger hazard, especially near the lake shores. ...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas... Days 1-2... A shortwave over the Corn Belt this morning will reach the Ohio Valley this evening. Ahead of this wave, weak surface low pressure will develop over the Lower MS Valley, helping to draw Gulf moisture northward. The increasing moisture and warm air advection combined with large-scale forcing for ascent within the left exit region of a strengthening 250mb 100kt+ jet streak over the Mid- South will yield a swath of banded snow from southeast IN and southern OH eastward to the central Appalachians today into tonight. Amounts will be light (Minor impacts per the WSSI) and WPC probabilities for snowfall >2" are 30-60% across a fairly narrow corridor from northern KY (CVG) eastward along and just north of the Ohio River and into WV. Banded snowfall could also lead to localized higher amounts, with low but non-zero probabilities of >4" around 5-10%. Upslope enhancement may also push accumulations above 4" in the higher elevations of WV, with probabilities of 20-40% mainly above 3000ft. Some light snow should crest the central Appalachians into parts of the Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but this can sometimes dry up east of I-81. WPC probabilities for 1" of snow are generally <15% along the I-66/Rt 50 corridor across northern VA, DC, MD, and into DE. Still, any snow combined with the recent cold could be enough to cause localized travel concerns. As the front continues southeastward, trailing shortwave energy may slow the southern portion of the front over the Southeast, allowing a weak area of low pressure to form over the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. As the low moves slowly through GA/SC Wednesday evening and off the coast early Thursday, moisture will linger over southern VA and much of northern/western NC where temperatures are marginally supportive of snow. During the overnight hours, dynamic cooling could support some light accumulation of 1-2" over southwestern VA and northern NC where WPC probabilities of >2" of snow are 30-60%. At the same time, enough northerly component of the wind could drain some sub-freezing boundary layer air into eastern NC and support light icing of around 0.01" or so. Any ice is hazardous, but this could be more problematic than usual due to the recent winter storm(s). Fracasso/Miller $$