FNUS76 KMFR 031439

FWSMFR



Spot Forecast for Black Canyon...OR-SHR

National Weather Service MEDFORD OR

739 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025



Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 PDT on July 03. 

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather

Service.



...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM

PDT THIS EVENING...



.DISCUSSION...Another round of scattered thunderstorms is expected

later this afternoon and evening, mainly between 4 and 8 PM. Gusty

outflows will be possible. Nocturnal thunderstorms are also expected

early Friday morning between 3 and 6 AM. Isolated afternoon

thunderstorms are possible again Friday afternoon.



.REST OF TODAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny turning mostly cloudy. Chance of

                    showers (30-40 percent) and thunderstorms (20-30

                    percent) in the afternoon. 

Chance of lightning.18 percent. 

Max temperature.....Around 80. 

Min humidity........20-25 percent. 

Eye level winds.....East winds around 2 mph shifting to the south 

                    up to 5 mph with gusts to around 7 mph in the 

                    afternoon. 

Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 10 

                    to 13 mph with gusts to around 21 mph in the 

                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected 

                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL increasing to 12300 ft AGL late in 

                    the afternoon. 

Transport winds.....South around 12 mph. 

CWR.................5 percent. 



.TONIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers (30-40 percent)

                    and thunderstorms (15-25 percent) in the evening,

                    then slight chance of showers (15-25 percent) and

                    thunderstorms overnight. 

Chance of lightning.26 percent decreasing to 16 percent.

Min temperature.....Around 50. 

Max humidity........70-75 percent. 

Eye level winds.....Southwest winds up to 6 mph with gusts to 

                    around 8 mph. 

Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 

                    22 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected 

                    near thunderstorms in the evening and near

                    thunderstorms after 3 am. 

Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Southeast around 8 mph. 

CWR.................20 percent. 



$$

Forecaster...HERMANSEN

Requested by...Zachary Hutchins

Type of request...WILDFIRE

.TAG 2517203.0/MFR

.DELDT 07/03/25

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL orlfc@firenet.gov,cjcchapp@aol.com