FNUS75 KMSO 100137

FWSMSO



Spot Forecast for Big Creek Fire

National Weather Service Missoula MT

737 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025



Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on May 10. 

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather

Service.



.DISCUSSION...South winds will develop Saturday morning before

shifting to the west-southwest and increasing in the afternoon as

a pressure gradient tightens over the region. Mid-level moisture 

and instability will lead to cumulus build-ups Saturday afternoon,

with an isolated chance for high-based showers. Another round of

gusty southwest winds are expected Sunday along with afternoon

scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may be

strong on Sunday, leading to the risk of gusty outflow winds and 

hail.



A low pressure system will move through the region Sunday night

into early next week, bringing widespread precipitation Monday

into Wednesday. By Wednesday, most of the precipitation will have

fallen, with a 75% chance for 0.50 inches or more, a 50% chance 

for 0.70 inches, and a 25% chance for 1.00 inches. 



.SATURDAY...



* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the 

  afternoon. 

* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...Less than 10 percent. 

* Chance Lightning....Up to 10 percent. 

* Max Temperature.....75-80. 

* Min Humidity........23-28 percent. 

* Wind (20 ft)........South 3-6 mph becoming west-southwest 8-14

  mph in the afternoon. Gusts 10-15 mph by late morning increasing

  to 25-30 mph in the afternoon. 

* Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl increasing to 8000 ft agl in the 

  afternoon. 

* Mixing Winds........Southwest 20 mph. 

* Precip Amount.......0.00 inches. 



.SATURDAY NIGHT...



* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and 

  thunderstorms in the evening. 

* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...10 percent. 

* Chance Lightning....20 percent. 

* Min Temperature.....43-48. 

* Max Humidity........60-65 percent. 

* Wind (20 ft)........West 6-10 mph. Gusts 10-20 mph in the

  evening. 

* Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl decreasing to 1500 ft agl early 

  in the evening. 

* Mixing Winds........West 10 mph. 

* Precip Amount.......0.01 inches. 



.SUNDAY...



* Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and

  thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...20 percent. 

* Chance Lightning....Up to 10 percent. 

* Max Temperature.....66-71. 

* Min Humidity........36-41 percent. 

* Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 5-10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the 

  afternoon. 

* Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl increasing to 9500 ft agl. 

* Mixing Winds........Southwest 20 mph. 

* Precip Amount.......0.01-0.03 inches. 



$$

Forecaster...Lukinbeal

Requested by...Greg Anderson

Type of request...WILDFIRE

.TAG 2513594.1/MSO

.DELDT 05/09/25

.FormatterVersion 2.0.0

.EMAIL gregory.j.anderson@usda.gov