FNUS75 KMSO 092016 FWSMSO Spot Forecast for Sawlog Fire National Weather Service Missoula MT 216 PM MDT Fri May 9 2025 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 MDT on May 10. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... 209...Mostly sunny skies occurred on Friday, with a ridge of high pressure in place. Warm temperatures promoted deep mixing and breezy west-southwest winds of 5-10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph in the afternoon, with highs in the upper-60s and RH in the 20s. IAP...Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday as southwest winds increase with a tightening pressure gradient. Mid-level moisture and instability will lead to cumulus build-ups by late morning to early afternoon, with high-based showers and thunderstorms developing along the divide between 1300-1400 MDT, which will quickly move eastward over the fire through 1600 MDT. Given the elevated nature of storms, outflow winds will be the primary storm threat, with a 70% chance for outflows to exceed 35 mph, and a 5% chance for severe winds of 60 mph or greater. Another round of strong southwest winds are expected Sunday, along with chances for showers and thunderstorms, with low confidence for any wetting precipitation. In the extended, a cold front will track across the area Monday evening, with widespread precipitation and wetting rains expected into Tuesday as a closed low pressure system moves through the area. By Wednesday morning, most of the precipitation will have fallen, with a 75% chance for 0.30 inches or more, a 50% chance for 0.50 inches, and a 25% chance for 0.75 inches. .SATURDAY... * Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...20 percent. * Chance Lightning....25 percent. * Max Temperature.....77-82. * Min Humidity........15-20 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 12-18 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph. * Mixing Height.......9000 ft agl. * Precip Amount.......0.01-0.03 inches. .SATURDAY NIGHT... * Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...10 percent. * Chance Lightning....25 percent. * Min Temperature.....42-47. * Max Humidity........64-69 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 8-18 mph in the evening decreasing to 5-10 mph overnight. * Mixing Height.......9000 ft agl decreasing to 1000 ft agl. * Precip Amount.......0.01 inches. .SUNDAY... * Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms. * CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...Less than 10 percent. * Chance Lightning....25 percent. * Max Temperature.....69-74. * Min Humidity........18-23 percent. * Wind (20 ft)........South 5-10 mph increasing to southwest 12-18 mph with gusts to around 30 mph in the afternoon. * Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl increasing to 11500 ft agl. * Precip Amount.......0.01 inches. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... Cooler. Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 39-44. Highs 60-65. Southwest winds 8-18 mph. .TUESDAY... Cooler. Showers with possible snow showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 33-38. Highs 48-53. Northwest winds 5-14 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Showers with possible snow showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 31-36. Highs 48-53. Northwest winds 5-13 mph. $$ Forecaster...Lukinbeal Requested by...Erin Ryan Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2512856.5/MSO .DELDT 05/09/25 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL mtddc@firenet.gov,erin_ryan@firenet.gov,2025.sawlog.plans@firenet.gov