FNUS75 KFGZ 030120

FWSFGZ



Spot Forecast for Carr Fire...USDA Forest Service

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

620 PM MST Wed Jul 2 2025



Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MST on July 02. 

If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the 

National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ



.DISCUSSION...Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely

this evening, with continued shower chances overnight. A 40-60%

chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on

Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances end by midnight

Thursday. Mostly dry on Independence Day but there is a 20% chance

of a shower or thunderstorm between 11am and 5pm.  



.TONIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and chance of 

                    thunderstorms in the evening, then rain showers 

                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms 

                    overnight. 

Chance of pcpn......80 percent. 

Min temperature.....48-52 top elevations, 65-69 low elevations. 

Max humidity........100% top elevations, 65-70% low elevations. 

Wind (20 ft)........Winds SW-W 5 mph shifting N-NE 5 mph around  

                    midnight. Gusty and erratic winds 

                    expected near thunderstorms. 

Min Vent Rate.......Poor. 

Clearing Index......10. 

Mixing height.......200 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 knots. 



.THURSDAY...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and chance 

                    of thunderstorms. 

Chance of pcpn......70 percent. 

Max temperature.....72-75 top elevations, 80-85 low elevations. 

Min humidity........38-42% top elevations, 30-34% low elevations. 

Wind (20 ft)........Winds SW 5-10 mph starting 7-8am. 

                    Turning W 10-15 mph starting 2-3pm. 

                    Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. 

Max Vent Rate.......Excellent. 

Clearing Index......1172. 

Mixing height.......9100 ft AGL in the morning and early afternoon 

                    increasing to 10800 ft AGL late in the 

                    afternoon. 

Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 knots. 



.THURSDAY NIGHT...



Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming mostly clear. 

                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the 

                    evening. 

Chance of pcpn......40 percent. 

Min temperature.....48-52 top elevations, 68-72 low elevations. 

Max humidity........80-85% top elevations, 50-55% low elevations. 

Wind (20 ft)........Winds W-5 mph after 8pm. Gusty and erratic 

                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the 

                    evening. 

Min Vent Rate.......Poor. 

Clearing Index......5. 

Mixing height.......100 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 knots. 



.INDEPENDENCE DAY...



Sky/weather.........Sunny. Slight chance of showers and 

                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

Chance of pcpn......20 percent. 

Max temperature.....73-77 top elevations, 83-86 low elevations. 

Min humidity........25-30% high elevations, 20-25% low elevations. 

Wind (20 ft)........Winds SW 5-10 mph after 9am, increasing to SW 10-15 mph

                    after 1 to 2pm . Gusty and erratic winds near 

                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. 

Max Vent Rate.......Excellent. 

Clearing Index......1101. 

Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL. 

Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 knots. 



A weather forecast table for your SPOT location is linked.

The information provided by this site is for planning purposes only

and is not intended to substitute information provided by an official

National Weather Service SPOT forecast.

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/fwd?lat=33.8157&lon=-110.963&clat=33.8157&clon=-110.963



$$

Forecaster...BERNHART

Requested by...Kyle Fogarty

Type of request...WILDFIRE

.TAG 2517172.0/FGZ

.DELDT 07/02/25

.FormatterVersion2.0.0

.EMAIL kyle.fogarty@usda.gov