FNUS28 KWNS 222041

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0340 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Valid 241200Z - 301200Z



An upper level ridge continues to build back across the western US

on Day 3/Tuesday. Although less intense and shorter in duration than

the recent heatwave, this will once again likely break daily high

temperature records over much of the southern two-thirds of the

western US. On Day 4/Wednesday, a potent upper-level trough

approaches the Pacific Northwest and will significantly dampen the

amplitude of the ridge as it moves across the northern CONUS border

on Day 5/Thursday. The jet max will exit the Eastern Seaboard on Day

6/Friday. While some differences exist among various forecast

guidance, the western US upper-level ridge will likely build back by

next weekend. Forecast guidance suggests that this ridge will be

nudged eastward by a robust trough moving across the northern

Pacific, but the timing and speed of this movement is uncertain at

this point.



On Day 4/Wednesday, as the ridge over the western US breaks down,

warm surface temperatures will support a robust boundary layer,

mixing strong westerly winds associated with the passing upper-level

jet to the surface. Forecast guidance indicates sustained west winds

of 20-30 mph will combine with RHs of 10-20% at the surface for

several hours during the afternoon. This warrants a 70% area for

much of east-central Wyoming while 40% probabilities cover portions

of northern Colorado, extreme northeast Utah, extreme southwest

South Dakota, and much of the Nebraska Panhandle where surface winds

will be slightly weaker.



On Day 5/Thursday, a cold front, supported by the aforementioned

passing upper-level trough, is expected to surge south across the

central and southern Plains. The 40% probability area was expanded

slightly east due to forecast guidance advecting drier conditions

farther across the southern Plains. While uncertainty in the timing

and evolution of this front will likely necessitate adjustments to

the risk area over the coming days, the southern High Plains

currently stands the best chance to experience critical fire weather

conditions with the frontal passage.



On Day 7/Saturday, northerly winds behind the cold front passing

through the Southeast CONUS late on Day 6/Friday could produce

downslope flow, contributing to lower RHs and gusty surface winds

once again. However, precipitation between now and then is likely

across portions of the area. Where rainfall may accumulate will

likely dictate the extent of any fire weather concerns over this

region. No areas have been introduced, but this region will be

watched over the coming days.



..Stearns.. 03/22/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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