FNUS28 KWNS 202135

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0433 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Valid 221200Z - 281200Z



...Discussion...

Weak mid-level impulses embedded within zonal flow will support

precipitation chances across the eastern CONUS through Day

4/Wednesday. Meanwhile, a shallow cold front will slowly progress

southward across southern Texas and the Deep South, promoting

isolated thunderstorm activity. Hot and mostly dry conditions will

continue across the lower Mississippi Valley through next week,

contributing to forecast ERCs approaching the 90-95th percentile

beyond Day 4/Wednesday; but, prevailing light winds should suppress

overall fire weather concerns. 



A weak mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest on Day

3/Tuesday, bringing thunderstorms to Nevada. Some mixed receptive

fuels may reside across portions of eastern Nevada, though forecast

ERCs range from the 50-70th percentile. Ensemble guidance is in

general agreement for ridging to build over the central-western

CONUS late in the workweek as an upper trough evolves across the

Eastern Pacific and impinges upon the Northwest. The overall pattern

indicates stronger southwest winds could return to the northern

Great Basin and Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Thursday; however,

an expected marginal fuelscape should limit a broader fire weather

threat. If fuels guidance trends drier, critical probabilities may

be needed in future outlook cycles.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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