FNUS28 KWNS 122109

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0307 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



Valid 141200Z - 201200Z



The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains limited

across the country for much of the extended period, though localized

concerns may emerge along portions of the High Plains during the

middle of the upcoming work week. Long-range ensemble and cluster

guidance shows strong agreement in the continuation of broad-scale

northwesterly flow aloft over the CONUS through the weekend with a

shift to a more zonal flow regime through the end of next week. This

upper-level regime will favor cool conditions with sporadic

precipitation chances from the Pacific Northwest into the northern

Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Much of the Southwest and southern

Plains will likely see very limited rain/snow potential through the

next 8 days with above-normal temperatures possible. 



...D6/Wed - Central to southern High Plains...

Latest ensemble guidance shows strong consensus in dry conditions

through the end of the upcoming work week for central and southern

High Plains. After a brief cool down this weekend, temperatures are

expected to return to the low 60s to low 70s by the middle of next

week, which falls within the 75-90th percentile of normal for

mid-December. Although ERCs are currently only in the 50-65th

percentile range, a gradual uptick in fuel readiness is anticipated

amid the dry/warm conditions. The upper-level flow regime aloft will

favor the development of lee cyclones across the northern Plains

followed by cold frontal passages during the D5/Tuesday to

D7/Thursday period. Each of these cyclones/frontal passages may

support sufficient winds for elevated to critical fire weather

concerns from eastern NM into CO and southeast WY. 



A few deterministic solutions hint that the best potential for

elevated/critical winds may come on D6/Wed as a strong low develops

over the northern High Plains. However, the overall synoptic regime

favors lower-amplitude upper waves that have inherent lower

predictability at this range - as evidenced by poor agreement among

GEFS/ECENS members. Similarly, run-to-run variation remains somewhat

high among long-range deterministic solutions over the past 24-48.

While the potential for fire concerns is noted due to an

increasingly receptive fuel landscape, risk highlights are withheld

until a more clear consensus among solutions emerges.



..Moore.. 12/12/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$