FNUS28 KWNS 092201

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0500 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025



Valid 111200Z - 171200Z



An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the

Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West through the middle of

next week, while a cutoff low across the Deep South will gradually

shift eastward bringing widespread, heavy rainfall to much of the

Southeastern U.S. The upper-level trough will bring  a range of fire

weather impacts to much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on

Day 3/Sunday and Day 4/Monday with eventual very warm, dry and

breezy conditions returning to the Southwest next week.



...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

The approach of the upper-level trough and associated warming will

result in temperatures 20-30F degrees above normal across portions

of the Dakotas Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday. The cutoff low across the

Southeast will inhibit low-level moisture return to the Northern

Plains region early next week allowing stronger southerly winds

combined with dry fuels and low relative humidity will allow for a

elevated, possibly critical fire weather threat across the region.



...Great Basin to Southwest...

A strong mid-level jet rounding the base of the slow moving

upper-trough will bring a multi-day fire weather threat to portions

of the Southwest beginning Day 4/Monday, potentially into Day

7/Thursday. Warm, dry and windy conditions are expected to set up

across the Great Basin Day 3/4 - Sunday/Monday but fuels are not yet

receptive with green-up occurring across the region. Dry fuels

remain across portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New

Mexico where highest fire weather concern exists for Day 5/Tuesday

into Day 6/Wednesday as a strong mid-level jet enters the region. 40

percent critical probabilities were introduced given higher forecast

confidence.



..Williams.. 05/09/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$