FNUS28 KWNS 052142 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z An upper high is expected to remain over the southern Great Basin/Four Corners through the weekend while the upper-level ridging over the northern Intermountain West will flatten. Monsoonal moisture will slowly drift west into southern California and north into Great Basin and eventually back to the Colorado Rockies during the outlook period. Forecast uncertainty remains regarding the location/magnitude of both the monsoonal moisture and flattening of the ridge through the weekend and into next week. ...Northern Intermountain West... The upper-level ridge will begin to flatten on Day 3/Friday across British Columbia and possibly into the northwestern CONUS, with a higher likelihood of zonal flow across the northwestern US over the weekend. Westerly flow aloft will increase along with a strengthening onshore pressure gradient to bring dry and breezy conditions to portions of the northern Intermountain West starting Day 3/Friday. Broad 40% areas remain on Day 3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday with locally critical conditions expected in the Cascade Gaps, while much of the 40% areas will likely experience near to elevated fire weather conditions. Dry and breezy conditions are likely to continue on Day 5/Monday from northern California extending across the northern Great Basin into eastern Wyoming. During this period, winds are likely to be west-northwest sustained at 10-20 mph amid minimum RH of 5-20%. ...Southern Intermountain West... Monsoonal moisture will slowly spread west/north with increasing chances and coverage of thunderstorms in southern California, the Great Basin, and western Colorado. There remains uncertainty regarding the western/northern extent of the monsoonal moisture, especially the amount and moisture duration. Probabilities of dry thunderstorms were added to Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday. These areas were chosen based on expected low probability of wetting rainfall in the coming days. Isolated to scattered mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely farther east in Utah and Colorado, but there are higher probabilities of monsoonal moisture persisting across these areas with eventual wetting rainfall. Additionally, mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are likely in the Peninsular Ranges of southern California, but PWAT values of 1.25"+ and surface dewpoints of 50F+ along with slow storm motions may limit ignition efficiency. These 10% areas are likely to change in the coming outlooks, and Day 5/Sunday was the last day included due to decreasing forecast confidence beyond this weekend. ...High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern Montana and Wyoming this weekend and potentially continuing through early next week. Lee troughing and eventually a deepening surface low on the central Plains will help increase winds amid a hot and dry airmass. Increasing southerly winds across portions of western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will likely result in elevated winds/RH. Given the potential for thunderstorms and wetting rain across portions of these areas ahead of time, probabilities were not included at this time. However, if forecast trends hold, probabilities/risk areas are likely to be included in future outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 08/05/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$