FNUS28 KWNS 022201

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0359 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026



Valid 041200Z - 101200Z



An amplified and partially blocked mid-level flow pattern over the

US will persist much of this week before slowly devolving this

weekend. Broad troughing over the East will continue as a cold

continental air mass is reinforced by several frontal passages

emanating from southern Canada. At the same time, a rex block over

the West will keep relatively dry and unusually warm conditions in

place for the next several days. Thereafter western ridging should

slowly move eastward late this week as the overall flow pattern

transitions to more zonal flow. While fire-weather concerns appear

limited owing to below normal temperatures and recent precipitation

over much of the eastern US, some areas of the West and FL could see

dry/breezy conditions into next week.



...Southern CA...

Beneath the upper ridge over the West Coast, a developing mid-level

low near Baja California will encourage easterly low and mid-level

flow over portions of Desert Southwest and southern CA D3/Wed and

D4/Thursday. Ridge top gusts of 30-40 mph are possible early

D3/Wednesday lingering into D4/Thursday with poor overnight RH

recoveries below 30%. Although alignment of dry and breezy

conditions are probable, a marginally dry fuelscape should limit

more significant fire weather concerns. Thereafter, onshore flow

should return as the upper low lifts north, limiting the

fire-weather risk into the weekend.



...FL...

The passage of several dry cold fronts later this week and into the

weekend could support occasional dry/breezy conditions over parts of

FL. With gusty northerly winds and offshore trajectories, well below

average RH (20-30%) is expected D5/Friday and D6/Saturday. However,

this will also coincide with below normal temperatures. Some

fire-weather risk is possible late this week and into the weekend

over the FL peninsula where precipitation has been limited. However,

the overall threat for fire-weather activity is uncertain given only

modestly receptive fuels.



..Lyons.. 02/02/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



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