AXPZ20 KNHC 121430

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1430 UTC.

 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N96W to 09N113W to

07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to beyond 09N140W. 

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 

05N and E of 84W, and from 08N to 17N between 108W and 121W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Fresh to strong gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec, with rough seas. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends 

across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The 

pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over western 

Mexico is supporting moderate winds in the central and southern 

Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in 

long period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the 

Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf

of California and nearshore SW Mexico.



For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to fresh through 

Sat. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will strengthen again on 

Sat, possibly reaching gale-force Sun night and prevailing 

through early Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate 

seas will prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of 

Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 06N.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 06N. Seas are 

mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell.



For the forecast, gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon 

trough over the next several days, except pulsing fresh to strong

in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf

of Panama through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will

prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW 

swell are expected over the regional waters through the weekend 

and into early next week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by 

early next week due to a possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 

event. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure 

gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in

the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is 

supporting moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of

110W. Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Gentle to 

moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the 

discussion waters.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient may tighten by the end 

of the weekend with trades just N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ 

freshening into early next week.

 

$$

AL