AXPZ20 KNHC 120909

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0830 UTC.

 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N128W. The ITCZ 

continues from 08N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection is noted N of 06N and E of 90W, and from 08N to 18N 

between 105W and 120W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Strong to near gale force gap winds are over and downstream the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec, with rough seas. Elsewhere, a surface ridge

extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. 

The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over 

western Mexico is supporting moderate winds in the central Gulf 

of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long 

period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the Mexican

offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of 

California and nearshore SW Mexico.



For the forecast, strong to near gale northerly gap winds will 

prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning, 

then weakening to moderate to fresh through Sat. Winds over the 

Tehuantepec region will strengthen again on Sat night, possibly 

reaching gale-force Sun night and prevailing through Tue. Mainly

gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail 

elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong winds are pulsing over and downstream the Gulf 

of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 

05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 05N. Seas 

are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell.



For the forecast, gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon 

trough over the next several days, except pulsing fresh to strong in

the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of

Panama through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will 

prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW 

swell are expected over the regional waters through the weekend 

and into early next week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by 

early next week due to a possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 

event. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure 

gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in

the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting 

moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of 110W. 

Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Gentle to moderate 

winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the discussion 

waters, except north of 20N and west of 125W where NW swell is 

generating rough seas to 8 ft.



For the forecast, seas with the long period NW swell over the N

central waters will subside today. The pressure gradient may 

tighten by the end of the weekend with trades just N of the 

monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into early next week.

 

$$

ERA