AXPZ20 KNHC 092124

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Fri May 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event 

is expected in the Tehuantepec region late tonight as a ridge 

builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in

Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. 

Winds are forecast to reach gale force beginning Sat morning and 

possibly last through Mon morning. Building seas to around 13 ft 

are expected with this event Sat night into Sun, with the plume 

of seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as 100W on Sun. 



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season 

occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring 

in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events 

may occur as early as September, and as late as May. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 

over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 08N110W. The ITCZ continues

from 08N110W to 08N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection

can be found from 03N to 10N between 85W and 100W, from 06N to 

12N between 100W and 110W, and from 08N to 10N between 110W and 

125W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1025 mb located N of area near 37N130W has a

ridge extending SE toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Under the

influence of this system, scatterometer data indicate gentle to

moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California,

and in the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, across the

Mexican offshore waters light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 

generally 4 to 6 ft, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 

California. 



For the forecast, a late season gap wind event is expected to

begin in the Tehuantepec region late tonight. Winds are forecast

to reach gale force by Sat morning, and possibly last through 

Mon morning. Please, see the Special Features section for more 

details. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to dominate the

offshore waters of Baja California this weekend supporting 

gentle to moderate NW winds. By Mon, strengthening high pressure 

W of area should enhance the NW winds to fresh conditions west of

the Baja California peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted offshore Nicaragua and

downwind to about 90W while light and variable winds are seen 

elsewhere across the Central America and Colombia offshore 

waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed per 

scatterometer data between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing 

to fresh to strong speeds Sun night, and again Mon night. Seas

are forecast to build to near 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere 

mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early next 

week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where 

gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected. Slight to 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail over the next

several days.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure located N of area

near 37N130W and covers the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W.  

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the

vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to fresh NE trades

with seas 7 to 8 ft in mixed wind waves and NW swell from 09N to

15N west of 110W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and 

seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate most of the

waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W through early next week, 

supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the trade wind 

zone with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 



$$

GR