AXNT20 KNHC 222219

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of 

Sierra Leone and Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward 

to 03N13W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01S49W along the

coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is

noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 27W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



1020 mb high pressure centered in the E Gulf provides for gentle

to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas across the basin.



For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will

maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas

across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the

eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche 

will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern 

and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night 

through mid-week. 



CARIBBEAN SEA...



A trough extends from SE Puerto Rico near 18N66W to a 1011 mb low

pressure near 13N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Fresh 

to strong NE winds persist north of the surface trough, including

within the Mona Passage, Windward Passage, and lee of Cuba. Seas 

are 4-7 ft in these regions. Elsewhere in the western Caribbean, 

NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the central 

and eastern Caribbean south and east of the trough, trades are 

light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas.



For the forecast, building high pressure over the western 

Atlantic will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong NE 

winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of 

Hispaniola into Mon night. Then, the high pressure will drift 

east, and fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nightly into 

late week offshore Colombia.



ATLANTIC OCEAN... 



A cold front extends from 1006 mb low pressure near 33N54W to 

eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer data indicates 

strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 22N and east of the 

front to 50W. North of 25N and west of the front to 65W, fresh to

strong NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas

are 8-12 ft north of 22N between 50W and 65W. In the eastern 

Atlantic, seas of 8-11 ft are analyzed across the basin east of 

45W in NE swell generated by a weakening 999 mb low near the 

Canary Islands. Seas range from 12-14 ft north of 27N between 20W 

and 28W. Winds in the far NE Atlantic remain near fresh speeds 

along the southern side of the low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate 

or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to move into 

the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. 

A new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between

northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by 

fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine

conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N

into mid-week before the front lifts northward. 



$$

ERA