AXNT20 KNHC 091040

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Fri May 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1035 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and

extends southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N21W to

00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 05N and

west of 25W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf of America, extending

from SW Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas. A strong squall is noted ahead

of the front, producing wind gusts to gale force, frequent

lightning strikes and higher seas. Moderate to fresh northerly

winds and moderate seas are found behind the front. Generally dry

conditions are evident in the remainder of the basin. Moderate to

fresh SE winds and slight to moderate seas are present south of

26N and east of 94W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight

to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move 

eastward today, with a low developing along the front near SE 

Louisiana. The low will meander over the NE Gulf through Sun while

the front will move eastward across the western half of the 

basin. By Mon, the low is forecast to move northward and the front

will continue to move across the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong 

northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the 

wake of the front through Sat night. Seas to 9 ft are expected Fri

night into Sat morning in the SW Gulf. Smoke from agricultural 

fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in parts 

of the Gulf region. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



High pressure north of the Caribbean supports fresh to strong

easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft.

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present in the central Caribbean,

including the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are also 3-6

ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate

seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the area supports 

pulsing fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds in the 

Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night. Moderate to locally 

fresh trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast over the 

remainder of the basin through today, including the waters E of 

the Lesser Antilles. Expect increasing winds and building moderate

to rough seas, mainly over the south-central Caribbean, including

off Colombia this upcoming weekend into early next week as the 

Atlantic high pressure builds westward. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough extends north to south along a weak 1013 mb low 

pressure near 26N67W. Another surface trough is noted north of the

Leeward Islands along 61W. The pressure gradient between a strong

ridge to the north and the aforementioned troughs sustain 

moderate to fresh SE-E winds and moderate to rough seas north of 

20N and between 45W and 65W. A weak ridge dominates the remainder 

of the SW North Atlantic waters, sustaining moderate or weaker 

winds and moderate seas.



An extratropical cyclone near 32N26W is producing a large area of

fresh to strong winds, especially north of 26N and between 20W and

38W. Seas in these waters are 10-16 ft, with the highest seas

occurring near 30N26W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, low pres centered between Bermuda 

and Hispaniola supports moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate to

rough seas overmuch of the waters E of 65W. These marine 

conditions will start to gradually diminish later today. The low 

pressure will meander near 27N between 65W and 70W today, and open

up into a trough by Sat morning. Then, the Atlantic high pressure

will build westward toward the Bahamas this upcoming weekend. 



$$

Delgado