AWUS01 KWNH 270712

FFGMPD

FLZ000-271300-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

311 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Areas affected...Westerm Florida Panhandle...



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 270715Z - 271300Z



SUMMARY... Rates of 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" to continue risk of 

rapid inundation flooding along the urban locales of the immediate

coast of western FL Panhandle 



DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9 SWIR and RADAR from EVX shows a pair of

narrow N-S oriented bands within the warm sector over the near

shore waters of the northern Gulf.  Confluent flow has narrowed in

direction but speed remains about 20-30kts through 700mb. 

Sufficient veering through depth shows WAA profile still

supporting 50 kts of effective bulk shear and about 200 m2/s2 of

helicity to maintain rotating updrafts.   These rotating updrafts

continue to slightly enhanced the localized flow providing further

escalation of moisture flux convergence in the lowest 10-15Kft of

storm.  Given bulk of 1.75-2" total Pwats (~1-1.25" per CIRA LPW)

will maintain solid rainfall efficiency with rates of 2"/hr likely

to continue with these back to back lines of updrafts.  Deep layer

steering and Bunkers right mover propagation vectors suggest a

slight increase in speed to 10-15kts but also a slight right

deflection along the surface front and coastline, probably with

some frictional speed convergence due to land as well.



Aloft, the 80kt WSW to ENE speed max remains slightly upstream and

to the southwest, leaving the developing cells within continued

favorable divergence aloft in the left exit ascent region.  The

shear is strong, but mainly above 500mb and is not generally

disrupting the depth of the rainfall generation region below

700mb.  Slow eastward propagation of the larger scale

divergence/oblique height-falls across N MS/AL, duration of heavy

rainfall could be 1-2+ hours given back to back updrafts.  As a

result a streak of 2-4" totals is plausible; however, greatest

totals may start to fall just offshore or directly along the

beaches.  So while the area is sandy and has high FFG values, the

area still remains fairly urban and more prone to rapid inundation

flooding.  As such, this style of flooding remains possible

through the early morning hours along the western FL Panhandle.



Gallina



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...



LAT...LON   30808683 30728600 30428520 30098505 29838513 

            29668540 30128590 30318660 30348719 30638722