AWUS01 KWNH 270214 FFGMPD FLZ000-ALZ000-270800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1013 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Areas affected...Southern Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 270215Z - 270800Z SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient supercells in proximity to the front and ample deep layer moisture flux will support rates of 2-2.5"/hr. Localized totals of 3-5" are possible in proximity to urban locations along I-10. Localized rapid inundation flooding is becoming increasingly possible. DISCUSSION...KMOB RADAR along with GOES-E 3.9/10.3um animation shows organizing thunderstorms across Mobile Bay. GOES-E WV shows the core of the upper-level jet is squarely atop of the developing cells but is shifting eastward bringing a more favorable larger scale ascent pattern over S AL into W FL over the next few hours. Combine this with strong shortwave digging across Arkansas, sliding a bit negative tilt across MS further adding larger scale ascent, while also strengthening low level confluent flow across the Northern Central Gulf. A persistent stationary front hugs the coastal zone from Mobile Bay toward Gulf county in the W FL Panhandle, south of which as solid theta-E, but also strong easterly flow is anchoring/steepening the front across the area too, increasing vertical isentropic ascent from south to southwesterly flow at and above the boundary layer with solid strong moisture convergence. The upper-level wave is helping to finally propagate the cold front across S MS and WAA is lifting the front off the Gulf. So cells and higher instability/theta-E air should lift into far S AL a bit more with 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE. While deep layer moisture has been advected eastward, the surface to lower boundary layer remains very saturated with Tds in the low to mid 70s and total PWats at or above 1.75", mainly in the sfc to 850 layer with .75 to .9" per CIRA LPW. GOES-E 3.9um shows a SW to NE confluence axis from the Boothville, LA toward the MS/AL coast. This may be a solid trending axis for additional upstream development. Also, given the proximity to the front, the low level shear is fairly strong with over 35-40 kts of bulk shear, but also nearly 200 m2/s2 of low-level helicity supportive of super-cell structures. The combination of 45-60 degrees of southerly flow from SE to WSW through 800mb at 30kts+ will allow for high concentrated moisture flux convergence of these higher values and support rates of 2-2.5"/hr. Forward propagation near the warm front will be very slow as well, with Bunker's right mover propagation vectors about 5 kts to the east, further increasing duration and potential for localized 3-5" totals. Proximity to urban locations from Mobile Bay eastward along I-10 would support possible rapid inundation flooding potential as the cells continue to strengthen/broaden increasing rainfall coverage as well. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 31288732 31198679 30868651 30528656 30318683 30208728 30228820 30998826 31248785