AWUS01 KWNH 092017

FFGMPD

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100115-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0247

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

416 PM EDT Fri May 09 2025



Areas affected...FL Panhandle...Far Southwest GA



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 092015Z - 100115Z



SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms across portions of the FL

Panhandle and far southwest GA over the next several hours may

result in isolated areas of flash flooding.



DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery continues to show several

slow-moving areas of thunderstorms across portions of the FL

Panhandle and far southwest GA. The convection has been forming

over the last couple of hours in close proximity to a frontal zone

draped across the region. A rather substantial pool of moisture

and instability is focused along this boundary with MLCAPE values

of locally near 1500 J/kg and PWs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches.



An upper-level trough upstream approaching the central Gulf Coast

will tend to favor some downstream upper-level divergence

downstream over the FL Panhandle going through the remainder of

the afternoon and into the early evening hours. This coupled with

the favorable thermodynamic environment should tend to favor

convective sustenance over the next several hours near the front

where this is also a corridor of at least modest moisture

convergence.



There will be some potential for backbuilding and training of

convective cells, and especially with some modest increase in the

low-level flow expected near the front. The presence of

smaller-scale cold pools/outflow boundaries will also tend to act

as secondary catalysts for regenerating convective cells.



Recent RRFS guidance has been tending to handle the ongoing

convective cells rather well, and suggests some localized 3 to 5

inch rainfall totals going through early this evening which will

be supported by rainfall rates of up 2 to 2.5 inches/hour.



Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result and

especially if any of these stronger storms and heavier rainfall

rates focus over the more urbanized locations.



Orrison



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...JAX...MOB...TAE...



ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   31108480 30988355 30768312 30478315 30258435 

            30208561 30398702 30858723 31058636