AWUS01 KWNH 091717

FFGMPD

FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092215-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0246

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

116 PM EDT Fri May 09 2025



Areas affected...Southeastern Louisiana and the Central Gulf Coast



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 091715Z - 092215Z



SUMMARY...Heavy rain threat for southeast Louisiana through the

central Gulf Coast continues through this afternoon. Convergence

of ongoing activity over southern Louisiana that should lift

northeast raises a localized flash flooding threat for vulnerable

areas including Lafayette, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, and Mobile.



DISCUSSION...A positively tilted upper trough over the Mid-South

this afternoon is providing broad scale moisture advection to the

Central Gulf Coast. A pair of surface lows over southwest and

southeast LA have slow-moving heavy thunderstorms that are

producing 2-3" in two hours per regional radar and rain gauges.

Continued low level 15-20kt southerly flow between these features,

MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, and lift from the right entrance region

of an 80kt jet to the north should allow further development to

the east/north which includes the I-10 corridor and vulnerable

metro areas.

This area has seen 2-5" rainfall over the past few days with

saturated soil helping vulnerability to extend somewhat beyond the

typical vulnerable urban areas from Lafayette to Mobile. Flash

flooding is considered possible through this afternoon with

additional threats this evening as the system slowly shifts east.





Jackson



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...



ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   31028791 30868695 30338721 30058826 29898918 

            29448957 29179016 29549171 29999255 30449211 

            30669095 30809024 30938888