AWUS01 KWNH 090015

FFGMPD

TXZ000-090345-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0244

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

814 PM EDT Thu May 08 2025



Areas affected...southern TX



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 090012Z - 090345Z



SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across

portions of southern TX with high rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr and

isolated totals of 3-5 inches over the next 2-4 hours.



DISCUSSION...Radar imagery through 00Z showed an uptick in

thunderstorm coverage to the northwest of Corpus Christi across

the I-37 corridor where outflows were merging. Upstream, a pair of

thunderstorm clusters were advancing toward the ESE from the Rio

Grande between Eagle Pass and Laredo, co-located with an MCV-like

feature, as well as a cluster just east of I-35 near Cotulla. The

environment over southern TX was unstable with 500-2000 J/kg

MLCAPE although pockets of CIN were present near the coast from

earlier storms via SPC mesoanalysis data.



It appears probable that lift out ahead of the east-southeastward

advancing circulation/convective clusters to the west and

divergent/diffluent flow aloft, will continue to encourage

convective development downstream. Following a general ESE motion

over the next 2-4 hours will support cell mergers and occasional

slow propagation which could support high rainfall rates of 2-3

in/hr and perhaps localized totals of 3-5 inches through ~04Z over

portions of southern TX. Due to relatively high FFG values across

southern TX, any flash flooding that develops would likely be tied

to impervious surfaces tied to towns/cities within the path of the

advancing clusters of heavy rain.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...



ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...



LAT...LON   28999961 28779793 28609693 28279665 27789692 

            26899732 26859836 26909945 27399975 27860010 

            28160046 28590042