AWUS01 KWNH 070650

FFGMPD

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-071247-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0162

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

249 AM EDT Thu May 07 2026



Areas affected...southern Alabama, far southwestern Georgia,

southeastern Mississippi



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 070647Z - 071247Z



Summary...Areas of training thunderstorms are likely to continue

for the next several hours, with isolated instances of flash

flooding possible through 13Z/8a CDT.



Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to move eastward

across the discussion area at around 40 knots while producing

areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates.  The heaviest of rain rates are

currently displaced just south and east of where heavier rain fell

earlier today near Montgomery/Selma and near Collins, MS --

although deep convection continues to redevelop across

southeastern Mississippi along and just ahead of a synoptic front

extending from Baton Rouge through Meridian to near Birmingham. 

Moist/unstable thermodynamic profiles and low-level/850mb

confluence will continue to support new updraft development across

southeastern Mississippi for several hours, with storms spreading

eastward through southern Alabama and far southwestern Georgia

through 13Z this morning.



Any flash flood risk within this regime will exist 1) where

convective training is most pronounced within the discussion area

and 2) where scattered convection can repeat across the

Montgomery/Selma/Collins areas where prior rainfall has lowered

FFGs to near zero.  Given the magnitude of prior rainfall in some

of these areas, flood impacts may still be ongoing and could be

exacerbated locally.  New instances of flash flooding are also

possible.  Local rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are likely through

13Z - particularly from Laurel/Hattiesburg eastward to Troy, AL

and areas near/south of Columbus, GA.



Cook



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...



LAT...LON   33548583 33178442 32328375 31438378 30878454 

            30908730 30778950 31188994 31668978 32348879 

            33178731