AWUS01 KWNH 070101 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070658- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0161 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 859 PM EDT Wed May 06 2026 Areas affected...Central LA, Central and Southern MS/AL, and Western GA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 070058Z - 070658Z SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will spread across the Southeastern U.S. with a heightened threat of training as the cold front continues to advance south through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Accumulations of 2-4 inches of rainfall, locally higher, are expected in areas of training leading to likely flash flooding as soils are primed from earlier rainfall. DISCUSSION...The 21z surface analysis continues to convey the methodical southern motion of a now wavy quasi-stationary front situated across the northern half of the Southeast CONUS. Multiple surface lows are embedded within the frontal structure with one still slowly ejecting eastward out of east TX, and the other analyzed over northern AL. The former area of low pressure will play a significant role in the convective evolution this evening as the low-level convergence regime amplifies into something more appreciable in regards to focusing convection over a more defined area. CAMs continue to be steadfast in their representation of the environment and synoptic scale evolution providing a solid consensus for where the heaviest rainfall will transpire as we move through the overnight period. Current environmental status remains very favorable with prevailing axis of elevated MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg situated ahead of the stationary front from southwest LA through western GA. Deep layer moisture remains prevalent over much of the Southeast with PWAT anomalies solidly between 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Mean layer flow will run more parallel to the boundary as it slowly migrates southward through the evening leading to general convective forward propagation to overlap with each other as they progress through the evening. Upper level dynamics remain favorable, as well as a broad upper trough passing to the north will maintain reputable large scale ascent within the right-entrance region of a 140kt upper jet crossing through the Mississippi Valley. Nocturnal LLJ centered over southern MS extending into AL will only provide increasing low-level convergence and relevant bulk shear to maintain stronger mesocyclone cores that can provide heavier rainfall over extended periods of their life cycle(s). Considering the above factors, rainfall rates this evening will likely exceed 1"/hr in the stronger cells with 2-3"/hr well within reach despite the loss of diurnal destabilization. Even as cells begin the merger process and become a more cohesive, multi-cell structure, heavy rain with 1-2"/hr areal averages will certainly be plausible which will lead to widespread areas of 2-4" of rainfall with locally higher totals possible as inferred by low-end HREF probabilities for >5" centered over southeast MS into south-central AL to the AL/GA line. Secondary maxima could also occur further northeast into northwestern GA, including potentially close to the Atlanta metro where some CAMs are relatively bullish with heavy rain prospects in the urban corridor. The greatest threat is still likely further south and west, but the setup is still relevant for those areas downstream into the northwest quarter of GA. Areas of highest concern are likely within the confines of Laurel, MS over to Montgomery, AL to near Columbus, GA spreading 50-75 miles either side of that line. Kleebauer ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB... SHV... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 34908514 34808461 34628420 34308401 33938385 33418392 32848431 32378464 32068520 31748605 31378698 31168791 31038901 30928992 30959150 31079277 31769269 32429175 32879071 33218969 34198708 34458635 34708575