AWUS01 KWNH 061927 FFGMPD ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-070125- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0160 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 PM EDT Wed May 06 2026 Areas affected...Far East TX through much of LA, MS, and western AL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061925Z - 070125Z SUMMARY...Increasing threat of heavy rainfall with scattered to widespread convective development initiating ahead of a slow-moving cold front to the north. Primed environmental conditions will allow for locally enhanced rainfall rates with totals approaching 2-4" in some of the heavier cells that develop. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite composite indicate a rapidly growing convective initiation regime across areas of far eastern TX extending northeast through LA/MS/AL. A cold front situated over east TX through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the northern tier of AL/MS will continue to slowly sag southward with multiple areas of surface low pressure riding along the front in the process. First surface low is analyzed across east TX with an enhanced convergence pattern centered to the east of the low as flow remains backed within the area situated between the TX/LA border north of the Lower Sabine. Area MUCAPE is between 2000-3000 J/kg in this location according to the latest mesoanalysis along with a moisture rich environment signaled by PWAT anomalies ~2 standard deviations above normal, a testament to a deep moist convective environment suitable for locally enhanced rates and potential for areas to see a quick couple inches of rainfall during impact. 12z HREF was quite robust in the signal for neighborhood probs of >1"/hr at times with a swath of 50-80% probs located from the TX/LA line to points northeast through much of MS into western AL. This correlates well with the boundary layer convergence anticipated along and ahead of the approaching cold front as the front approaches the fairly buoyant environment further south. The other area of interest within this setup is across northeast MS into northern and western AL where the second surface wave will continue to migrate to the northeast leading to a general foci for convective development under the lows influence. Like areas further southwest with the low in TX, there will be an narrow corridor of enhanced convective potential within the locally backed flow centered just to the east and northeast of the surface wave's trajectory. The good news for this area is the front will migrate through the region and begin to provide a drier theta_E advection pattern on the backside of the low. However, the narrow corridor of elevated theta_E's analyzed over northeast MS into northern AL should still be sufficient for locally heavy rain cores, noted very well within the latest 18z WoFS iteration that is consistent with its signature of a band of heavier convection forming in the aforementioned area. The general setup for the entire area encompassed by the MPD will be suitable for heavy precip totals between 2-4" in the hardest hit areas with hourly rates between 1-2"/hr in the strongest cells. This is well-documented on the consistent signatures via the latest HRRR iterations, as well as the noted prob fields from the 12z HREF where CAMs were consistent in the potential between now and 01z in this corridor of the Southeastern CONUS. Kleebauer ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB... SHV... ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 34728734 34258671 33348667 32618703 32048788 31728853 31468925 31229027 30869157 30589263 30439371 30399448 30879466 31379435 31879363 32109284 32399221 32619180 32909112 3324903833698949 34238869 34588778