AWUS01 KWNH 052137

FFGMPD

NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-060200-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0950

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

536 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026



Areas affected...eastern PA into central/northern NY and the NYC

metro



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 052131Z - 060200Z



SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will remain for another

2-4 hours across portions of eastern PA into central/northern NY

and the NYC metro. High sub-hourly rainfall rates will support the

potential for 1 to 2+ inches through 02Z.



DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 2115Z continued to show scattered

showers/thunderstorms extending from portions of southeastern PA

into north-central NJ, although the intensity of rainfall has

lowered compared to earlier this afternoon. Visible satellite

imagery showed a number of low level vorticity maxima embedded

within a broader axis of low level convergence that extended from

the east-central MD/PA border into central NJ, each associated

with locally heavier regions of rainfall. MLCAPE has been limited

to ~500 to 1000 J/kg along this convergence axis, but instability

has also been advecting northward in association with a weak warm

front, with PWs locally in excess of 2 inches.



While the threat for additional flash flooding appears isolated

through the evening, as the diffuse warm front continues to lift

north, weak instability (<1000 J/kg) is forecast by the RAP to

expand into northeastern PA, northern NJ and the NYC metro. Based

on earlier rainfall rates across PA into NJ, the potential will

exist for 15-minute rainfall totals of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and storm

totals of 1 to 2+ inches. Should these higher rates materialize,

heavy rainfall should remain isolated across eastern PA into

northern NJ and southern NY, but overlap with urban or otherwise

sensitive locations could result in flash flooding.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...



ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...



LAT...LON   41577437 41257376 40727369 40147470 39647646 

            39937719 40557695 41067605 41517526