AWUS01 KWNH 051943

FFGMPD

PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-060100-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0949

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

341 PM EDT Wed Aug 05 2026



Areas affected...portions of the upper OH Valley



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 051939Z - 060100Z



Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms will maintain a threat for

flash flooding into the evening across portions of the Upper OH

Valley over the next 3-6 hours. High rain rates on the sub-hourly

scale will likely result in peak rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches

(locally higher) through about 00Z.



Discussion...1920Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms

aligned in a SW to NE axis on the warm side of a diffuse

quasi-stationary front extending from central KY into a low over

southeastern OH, and northward along an inverted trough axis into

far western NY. The front was aligned with a slow moving mid to

upper-level shear axis on water vapor imagery with modest

divergence aloft within the right-entrance region of a 50-60 kt

upper level jet max extending northeastward from eastern OH. A

gradient existed in precipitable water values with 1.5 to 2.0

inches seen on blended TPW imagery and RAP analyses along and just

to the warm side of the front, falling back to about 0.75 inches

over northwestern OH.



low level flow was weak but aligned with the front and deeper

layer mean steering flow from the SW which is a favorable setup

for training. However, the lack of organization of cells due to

the weak shear has resulted in limited residence time for most

cells and outflow dominance. Still, the high moisture environment

has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall of 0.5 to 1.25 inches in 15

minutes and hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, locally in excess of

2 inches, from northern KY into southern and eastern OH. With slow

movement of synoptic scale forcing over the next 6 hours, cells

will likely continue to take advantage of the 1000-2000 J/kg

MLCAPE in place near and east of the front from KY into OH,

eventually reaching portions of western PA/WV into central WV

which tend to be more hydrologically sensitive to high rain rates.

High short term rates are expected to result in storm total

rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches on a localized basis which may result

in a few areas of flash flooding through 01Z.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...



ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...



LAT...LON   41678032 41487960 40137931 38528035 37588174 

            37508317 37828439 38438459 39178371 40148206 

            41108123