AWUS01 KWNH 031901

FFGMPD

TXZ000-NMZ000-040100-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0581

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

259 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Areas affected...New Mexico & West Texas



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 031900Z - 040100Z



SUMMARY...Broad upper-level troughing and an unstable air-mass

coupled with anomalous moisture and saturated soils could result

in additional areas of flash flooding today, especially near burn

scars.



DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough approaching from Arizona will

place a more efficient diffluent flow over much of New Mexico and

as far south as West Texas. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and

GLM show a growing field of thunderstorms along the Southern

Rockies that continue to strengthen. Visible satellite shows this

area has generally been free of thick low-mid level clouds,

allowing for surface-based heating to occur relatively unimpeded.

RAP mesoanalysis depicts as much as 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place

over eastern NM with 17Z RAP guidance showing anywhere from

1,000-2,000 J/kg later this afternoon. The region continues to

sport highly anomalous moisture aloft with PWATs over the Southern

Rockies and Rio Grande Valley generally between 1.0-1.25", while

the High Plains of eastern New Mexico are more commonly between

1.5-1.75". Regardless of the exact numbers, all these PWATs are

comfortably above the 90th climatological percentile per ECMWF ENS

guidance and even topping the 99th climatological percentile in

southeast New Mexico.



The approaching upper-level trough, copious amounts of moisture,

and modest instability should allow for the thunderstorm threat to

linger into the early evening hours. As the upper trough

approaches, SWrly 850-300mb mean winds should accelerate to >15

kts, which while this does help to keep storms moving along, this

can also further act as a trigger for additional storms or

back-building storms along windward-facing slopes. Storms along

the Sangre De Cristo and Sacramentos could also move northeast

into eastern New Mexico where any outflows emanating off the

terrain or from thunderstorms over western Texas could aid in the

development of thunderstorms producing >1.5"/hr rainfall rates.

NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles still suggest

soils of that depth remains quite saturated, or to the tune of

80-95%. Given the favorable atmospheric parameters and sensitive

soils, there is the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms

to pose a flash flood threat. Burn scars and rugged terrain, as

well as low-lying areas that drain poorly are most at-risk through

this evening.



Mullinax



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   36850564 36730511 36410479 36070451 35400405 

            34560351 33720326 32840317 32170336 31250425 

            30980511 30970555 31270612 31680679 31800713 

            31860746 31980787 32300823 32640823 33060812 

            33650803 34140818 34800815 35140796 35540754 

            35700743 36030666 36280640 36620594