AWUS01 KWNH 021850

FFGMPD

NMZ000-AZZ000-030050-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0573

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

250 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025



Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 021850Z - 030050Z



SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms developing this afternoon may

contain rainfall rates up to 1"/hr and overlap with sensitive burn

scars, urban regions, and complex terrain of southeast Arizona and

southwest New Mexico. Isolated to scattered instances of flash

flooding are possible.



DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES19 IR satellite imagery depict

numerous small-scale thunderstorms developing this afternoon

across the Southwest in response to diurnal heating and within an

anomalously moist atmosphere. PWs are estimated to be within

1.2-1.5" per SPC's mesoanalysis, which falls between the 75th and

90th climatological percentile per the 00z ECENS. Additionally,

SBCAPE values are largely above 1000 J/kg across this region,

which is necessary for coverage of thunderstorms to produce

scattered instances of flash flooding and rainfall rates up to

1"/hr.



Mean layer flow in this region remains weak and out of the southas

an upper low churns well to the west over coastal CA, which should

lead to eventually thunderstorms becoming outflow dependent and

tending to progress southward towards greater instability. As

storms do this, cell mergers could briefly increase rainfall rates

and potential flash flooding impacts. The 12z HREF shows the

greatest potential for rainfall amounts exceeding FFG near and

south of Tucson, AZ and along the AZ-Mexico border. It is here

where a mid-level convergence axis may focus thunderstorm activity

late this afternoon once storms reach their peak maturity and

updrafts collapse. Given the sensitive burn scars across parts of

southwest NM and the urban center of Tucson, scattered instances

of flash flooding are possible should these slow-moving

thunderstorms overlap.



Snell



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...



ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...



LAT...LON   34891065 34130980 33930895 34040789 33670742 

            32630749 31720781 31190846 31070976 31171122 

            31481221 32061283 32731275 32941177 33371144 

            34221151 34731124