ACUS48 KWNS 220842

SWOD48

SPC AC 220840



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0340 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Valid 251200Z - 301200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...

An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Wednesday, as

northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the

eastern U.S. On Thursday, the ridge will become less amplified as it

moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture is

forecast to return northward into the lower to mid Mississippi

Valley. Within this moist airmass, a pocket of moderate instability

is expected by late Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm development

will be possible near a front along the northern edge of the

stronger instability from northeast Missouri east-northeastward into

north-central Ohio. Storms are expected to move east-southeastward

across the Ohio Valley on Thursday afternoon and evening. A severe

threat will be possible, but the magnitude of any potential threat

is still uncertain.



...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8...

From Friday into Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move

southward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coast.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the front

both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Weak instability should keep any

severe threat marginal.



On Sunday, the models are forecasting a dry airmass over most of the

continental U.S., suggesting the potential for storms is low.



..Broyles.. 03/22/2026