ACUS48 KWNS 030859

SWOD48

SPC AC 030858



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Valid 061200Z - 111200Z



...DISCUSSION...

During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build

across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there

will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow

across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic

coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the

period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north

of the stronger instability early in the period.



At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next

week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will

likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary

ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs

given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear.

However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too

great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of

the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of

next week.



..Bentley.. 07/03/2025