ACUS11 KWNS 271946

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 271946 

FLZ000-272215-



Mesoscale Discussion 2189

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0246 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 271946Z - 272215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...A couple of strong and damaging wind gusts may occur with

the stronger storms this afternoon.



DISCUSSION...An MCS is approaching the FL Peninsula while remaining

organized. Robust insolation is taking place ahead of the MCS over

the central FL Peninsula, with thunderstorm initiation noted. Here,

near 90 F temperatures amid 70+ F dewpoints, beneath modest

mid-level lapse rates, is boosting MLCAPE to 2500+ J/kg (per 19Z

mesoanalysis). Furthermore, appreciably strong mid to upper

west-southwesterly flow is contributing to elongated hodographs and

associated speed shear, as shown via RAP forecast soundings.

However, the modest mid-level lapse rates are constraining buoyancy

to relatively narrow profiles. This may limit the severe threat to a

degree, either with the approaching MCS or any multicellular and/or

transient supercellular storms that can mature ahead of it. The

current thinking is that the more mature storms, or stronger cores

within the approaching MCS, may support a couple of strong, damaging

wind gusts over the next few hours. An instance or two of hail

cannot be ruled out.



..Squitieri/Gleason.. 10/27/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...



LAT...LON   28338067 27868047 27658042 27478055 27408078 27378130

            27378191 27378215 27398234 27468244 27678251 28108253

            28678255 29148236 29368209 29478171 29478138 29278103

            28948081 28338067 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN