ACUS11 KWNS 271027

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 271027 

FLZ000-271200-



Mesoscale Discussion 2188

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0527 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Areas affected...Coastal portions of the central Florida Panhandle



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 271027Z - 271200Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A localized risk of a tornado or two and waterspouts

continues over coastal portions of the central Florida Panhandle.

Given the localized nature of the risk, the need for a watch is

uncertain, though trends are being monitored closely.



DISCUSSION...After several storm mergers, a well-established

supercell has evolved about 13 miles offshore of the Panama City

coast area. Radar data over the last 30 minutes, coupled with

forecaster experience, suggest high confidence that two waterspouts

have occurred with this supercell. The storm is focused within a

persistent north/south-oriented low-level confluence zone and is

being aided by 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per EVX/TLH VWP data).

While the severe risk associated with this activity may remain

offshore where boundary-layer moisture/heat fluxes are aiding in its

current intensity, lower 70s dewpoints along the immediate coastal

areas of the central FL Panhandle do support some risk of inland

progression. If this were to occur, a tornado or two could not be

ruled out -- given the well-established low-level mesocylone. Given

the spatially confined area and considerable uncertainty of a

tornado risk developing onshore, the need for a watch is uncertain.



..Weinman/Smith.. 10/27/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TAE...



LAT...LON   29578538 29988606 30208610 30368587 30428540 30208474

            29908449 29538477 29578538 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH