ACUS11 KWNS 270607

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 270606 

FLZ000-ALZ000-270830-



Mesoscale Discussion 2187

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0106 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Panhandle



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 270606Z - 270830Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A localized risk of brief tornadoes/waterpsouts will

continue through the early morning hours while spreading eastward

across the western Florida Panhandle. Given the localized and and

conditional nature of the risk, a watch is not expected.



DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a mesoscale

low/frontal wave over the far western FL Panhandle. A marine front

extends eastward across the remainder of the southern FL Panhandle

-- demarcating the northern bound of upper 60s to lower 70s

boundary-layer dewpoints. Ahead of the frontal wave, the EVX VWP is

sampling 35-kt east-southeasterly flow at 0.5 km AGL, which is

yielding a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (150-180 m2/s2 0-500

m SRH per EVX). As the frontal wave tracks eastward along the marine

front, a forced confluence zone/low-level warm-advection plume will

continue supporting thunderstorm development across the FL Panhandle

through the early morning hours. Given the implied enhanced

low-level streamwise vorticity and relatively moist boundary layer,

transient supercell structures will continue to pose a risk of brief

tornadoes/waterspouts. However, poor lapse rates and a very narrow

zone of surface-based effective-inflow-layer air should keep the

overall threat localized and conditional -- precluding the need for

a watch.



..Weinman/Smith.. 10/27/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...



LAT...LON   30128757 30548760 30668740 30748698 30708644 30588571

            30298534 30008541 29908579 30018684 30128757 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH