ACUS11 KWNS 270312

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 270311 

FLZ000-ALZ000-270445-



Mesoscale Discussion 2186

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1011 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



Areas affected...coastal AL and western FL Panhandle



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 270311Z - 270445Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...A brief tornado is possible with potential intensification

of a transient supercell tracking along a quasi-stationary front.

Limited spatial extent and marginal nature of the tornado threat

will preclude a watch issuance.



DISCUSSION...Multiple transient circulations have occurred over the

past 2-3 hours with a slow-moving, but persistent updraft that has

evolved from near Dauphin Island across a part of Mobile Bay into

Baldwin County, AL. Each circulation attempt has eventually

broadened/diminished amid weakness in the 1-3 km portion of the

hodograph, per the MOB VWP, and poor tropospheric lapse rates

sampled in available 00Z RAOBs. Nevertheless, this updraft may track

eastward along the quasi-stationary front that extends overland

across Pensacola to Santa Rosa Island. Potential for brief

tornadogenesis may persist through about 06Z along this corridor.



..Grams/Hart.. 10/27/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...



LAT...LON   30518774 30558731 30568708 30418634 30278620 30308645

            30328695 30268768 30518774 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH