ACUS11 KWNS 222050

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 222050 

OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222315-



Mesoscale Discussion 0285

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0350 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Areas affected...Southeast IL...southern/central IN...and

southwest/central OH



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 222050Z - 222315Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms capable of producing

severe hail and locally damaging gusts should increase later this

afternoon into the evening. While timing is uncertain, a watch may

eventually be needed for parts of the area.



DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an ENE/WSW-oriented

cold front moving quickly southward across central OH, IN, and IL.

While surface temperatures have warmed into the middle/upper 80s

amid middle/upper 50s to near 60 dewpoints ahead of the front, the

latest ACARS soundings suggest that the low-levels remain relatively

dry, and a lack of pre-frontal boundary-layer cumulus also confirms

this. As a result, confidence in surface-based storm development

ahead of the front is low. The one exception is in eastern/central

OH, where isolated thunderstorms are evolving along the front and

could pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds over the next

hour or two. Nevertheless, as large-scale ascent preceding a

midlevel wave overspreads the region later this afternoon into the

evening, anafrontal convection is expected westward into western OH,

southern/central IN, and southeastern IL. A plume of steep midlevel

lapse rates atop the frontal surface and around 50 kt of effective

shear should still support storm organization. 



Severe hail will be possible with any elevated supercells that can

evolve, especially in the earlier stages of convective development.

However, deep-layer westerly flow may tend to promote upscale growth

into clusters/lines. While the expected elevated nature of these

storms casts uncertainty on the damaging-wind risk, the steep lapse

rates and antecedent heating of the pre-convective boundary layer

could support damaging winds with the upscale-growing activity.

While timing of storm initiation is a bit uncertain, a watch may

eventually be needed for parts of the area.



..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/22/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...

ILX...LSX...



LAT...LON   38918901 39358897 39698852 39958788 40278651 40518445

            40618321 40488267 40378241 39998216 39448213 39118241

            38868299 38638401 38438507 38278620 38088778 38188825

            38488879 38918901 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN