ACUS11 KWNS 221902 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221902 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-222030- Mesoscale Discussion 0284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Ohio into central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia...and western Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 221902Z - 222030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms is increasing. Supercells and small bowing segments will support a severe wind/hail risk through the afternoon. A tornado is also possible. A Severe Thunderstorm watch will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts a gradual deepening of cumulus on the southern periphery of a cloud deck, and ahead of an approaching cold front, where surface temperatures have warmed above 80 F. Surface dewpoints range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F, resulting in meager buoyancy (i.e. 1000 J/kg SBCAPE per the 18Z PIT observed sounding). Despite relatively poor moisture, steep tropospheric lapse rates and enlarged hodographs (per recent CCX/PBZ VADs), will support the development of potentially longer-lived updrafts with any storms that manage to mature. Supercells and small bowing segments are possible. 50+ kts of effective bulk shear amid 7.5-8.5 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates will support severe hail potential with sustained supercells, with some stones potentially reaching 2 inches in diameter. Furthermore, given the well-mixed boundary layer and strong speed shear in place (per 18Z PIT observed sounding), efficient damaging wind production is possible. A gust or two may exceed 65 kts. Storms are expected to initiate in the next few hours, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 03/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40268195 40748003 41097790 41037701 40797661 40447643 40097649 39877669 39637706 39407768 39387845 39397911 39338019 39368087 39418132 39518167 39608189 40268195 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN