ACUS11 KWNS 201839

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 201839 

ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-202045-



Mesoscale Discussion 2315

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0139 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Areas affected...South-central into east-central Oklahoma



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 201839Z - 202045Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe hail may

occur with the strongest storms this afternoon. The spatial extent

of severe potential may remain isolated. The need for a watch is

uncertain and trends will continue to be monitored through the

afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Convective activity has been increasing within the

surface trough in central/eastern Oklahoma. A recent TAMDAR sounding

from TUL suggest MLCIN remains owing to some cloud cover; however,

MLCIN should slowly weaken with time as has been noted within the

Ouchita Mountains on visible satellite. The KINX VAD shows a

relatively disorganized wind profile. More favorable wind profiles

are likely to remain displaced from the better thermodynamic

environment. Even so, around 25-30 kt of effective shear will still

be in place due to the weak mid-level perturbation in to the

immediate west. Moderately steep low-level lapse rates and a

well-mixed boundary layer will mean damaging wind potential with the

strongest storms. Given the observed 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates,

isolated marginally severe hail may also  occur. While widely

scattered to scattered coverage will eventually evolved, the overall

severity of this activity is not certain given the expected

disorganized modes.



..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...



LAT...LON   33969717 34709726 36139583 36239494 35899443 35119460

            34469530 34069612 33939663 33969717 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN