ACUS11 KWNS 091742

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 091741 

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091915-



Mesoscale Discussion 0752

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1241 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025



Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into extreme

southeast Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 091741Z - 091915Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...A strong, damaging wind gust or an instance of marginally

severe hail may occur with some of the stronger storms over the next

few hours. Watch issuance is not expected.



DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts intensifying

thunderstorms along the FL Panhandle and immediate surrounding

areas, with 40 dBZ echoes extending over 30 kft. These storms are

strengthening atop a deepening boundary layer, with 8 C/km 0-3 km

lapse rates contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Regional VADs show

modestly elongated, straight hodographs and around 30 kts of

effective bulk shear, favoring multicellular storm modes. The

strongest, longest-lived multicells may produce strong wind gusts

and perhaps an instance of marginally severe hail. The sparse nature

of the severe threat precludes a watch issuance.



..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...



LAT...LON   30688735 31288599 31308481 30948385 30468368 30158388

            29818438 29638487 29578512 29738539 29958551 30168585

            30298630 30348696 30688735 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN