ACUS11 KWNS 090220

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 090219 

TXZ000-090315-



Mesoscale Discussion 0750

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0919 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025



Areas affected...parts of deep south Texas



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...243...



Valid 090219Z - 090315Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241, 243

continues.



SUMMARY...The damaging wind and hail risk continues across WW 241

and 243. Two more organized bows may pose a locally greater risk for

a significant gust or two of 70-80 mph.



DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC, prior supercells and severe storm

clusters over the Rio Grande Valley and southern TX have gradually

grown upscale this evening. Two stronger bowing segments have

materialized with recent near-severe gusts observed across Duval

County. CRP/BRO radar cross sections show increasingly deep cold

pools and hints of descending rear-inflow jets within these storms.

This suggests further upscale growth into a QLCS is likely over the

next couple of hours as convection approaches the coast. With

moderate buoyancy from SPC mesoanalyis (2000 J/kg MLCAPE 00z BRO

RAOB), and 50-55 kt of effective shear observed from the BRO/CRP

VADs, storms will likely remain highly organized as they track

toward the Gulf Coast. Damaging winds are the most prominent threat,

thought some hail will remain possible given the degree of buoyancy

and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. The two bowing segment

may also pose a risk for an isolated significant gust upwards of 75

mph given increasingly strong cold pools and more organized linear

structures.



..Lyons.. 05/09/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...



LAT...LON   28549839 28699773 28539662 28129679 27409733 26909735

            26329742 26299821 26749918 27059938 27609898 28549839 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN