ACUS11 KWNS 062145

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 062145 

SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-062345-



Mesoscale Discussion 0656

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0445 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026



Areas affected...portions of Northeastern Alabama...northern Georgia

into far southeastern Tennessee and southwestern North Carolina.



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 062145Z - 062345Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage could support a few organized

supercells or clusters this afternoon/evening. While buoyancy is

modest, deep-layer shear remains quite strong along and near the

front. A risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may

develop.



DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery

showed convection blossoming along the diffuse frontal zone

stretching from northern AL into GA and portions of TN/NC. Obstinate

cloud cover has limited buoyancy along the front northeast of

Tornado Watch 187. Still, mid 60s F surface dewpoints are allowing

for ~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. As storm coverage increases upstream over

AL, strong deep-layer flow (60-80 kt) may allow for organization

into supercells or linear clusters. This could support damaging

gusts with the strongest storms given the rather strong background

shear. Low-level shear remains modest, but given the proximity to

the front, a tornado or two may also be possible, especially with

any sustained supercells.



Observational trends and CAM guidance show a messy storm mode with

numerous storm interactions likely. This, along with the weak

buoyancy makes the severe potential in this region highly uncertain.

However, some severe risk could materialize, and a WW is possible.



..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/06/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...



LAT...LON   34908626 34968617 35238447 35248390 35138326 34688317

            34098322 33828358 33808434 33958526 34208616 34258627

            34908626 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN