ACUS11 KWNS 062014

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 062014 

ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062215-



Mesoscale Discussion 0654

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0314 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026



Areas affected...parts of central and southern Mississippi and

adjacent portions of Alabama



Concerning...Tornado Watch 186...187...



Valid 062014Z - 062215Z



The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 186, 187 continues.



SUMMARY...Evolving supercells accompanied by increasing potential

for a strong tornado or two through 5-7 PM CDT.



DISCUSSION...Substantive intensification of initially widely

scattered discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as a

seasonably moist boundary layer approaches peak afternoon

destabilization (including mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg)

and inhibition continues to erode from below, as depicted in

soundings from Jackson MS.  As subtle mid-level height falls

overspread the region during the next few hours, further suppression

of inhibition appears probable, which may result in increasing

number of intensifying storms.



Latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate notable intensification

of west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer (to 40-50+ kt)

across east central Louisiana through south central Mississippi

between now and 23-00Z.  As this occurs, associated strengthening of

deep-layer shear may promote increasing tornadic potential in

evolving supercells.  Even with only some further enlargement of

modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, high surface dew

points now in the mid 70s are enhancing near-surface buoyancy and

potential upward accelerations, which may contribute to the risk for

a strong tornado or two.



..Kerr.. 05/06/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...



LAT...LON   32269094 32408966 32528844 31828798 30628864 30878990

            30929163 31369193 32269094 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN