ACUS11 KWNS 061657 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061657 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062000- Mesoscale Discussion 0653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026 Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Louisiana...central and southern Mississippi...adjacent western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061657Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms initiating over the next few hours may begin to more substantively intensify and organize by 3-5 PM CDT, if not perhaps a bit earlier. A tornado watch likely will be needed at some point, though timing remains a bit uncertain. DISCUSSION...Lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is contributing to a deepening moist boundary across much of Louisiana through southern and central Mississippi, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. Surface dew points across this region are generally in the lower to mid 70s F, with breaks in cloud cover beginning to contribute to destabilization which may become characterized by sizable CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon. Erosion of inhibition from below has been accompanied by the development of scattered showers, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms likely to continue to gradually initiate over the next few hours. Particularly toward 20-21Z, when Rapid Refresh suggests that a low amplitude wave migrating through the crest of broader ridging aloft may contribute to subtle mid-level height falls, more substantive intensification appears increasingly probable. This is likely to include organizing supercells in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although enlargement of clockwise-curved low-level hodographs may remain modest even with some strengthening of southwesterly flow around 850 mb later this afternoon, profiles may still become conducive to the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, given the saturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with high moisture content. Otherwise, the more discrete stronger cells probably will be accompanied by a risk for large, potentially damaging hail. The southward advancing, and undercutting, surface cold front to the north seems likely to provide the northern limit to this threat, with the stronger mid-level ridging/capping providing the southern limit near and inland of coastal areas. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/06/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32219123 32628988 32878902 32948765 31668761 30728797 30318952 30739078 30849237 31869230 32219123 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN