ACUS11 KWNS 052014

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 052013 

OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052215-



Mesoscale Discussion 1837

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0313 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026



Areas affected...portions of the Raton Mesa in New Mexico/Colorado

into the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 052013Z - 052215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Weak upslope flow and strong heating across the higher

terrain should support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and

into the evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible with

isolated hail or severe wind gusts possible. Organization and

coverage of the stronger storms should be limited and a Watch

appears unlikely.



DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery showed initial updrafts

along the crest of the Sangre De Cristos Range and Raton Mesa were

deepening. Weak upslope flow and diurnal heating south of a

quasi-stationary front will continue to support destabilization this

afternoon. RAP soundings show convective temperatures in the mid 80s

to low 90s F are gradually being reached which should remove most

inhibition over the next 1-2 hours. This, along with the weak

upslope flow and a passing weak mid-level trough should support an

increase in storm coverage through the afternoon.



The air mass over the southern High Plains is hot and moderately

unstable with SPC mesosanalysis showing 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and

mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km by late afternoon. This will be

sufficient to support stronger updrafts initially over the higher

terrain. Deep-layer shear is not overly strong (20-30 kt), but

should allow the storms to move off the higher terrain and

strengthen with time, especially into this evening as a 25+ kt

southerly low-level jet is forecast to develop. This could support

some organized multicell structures or transient supercells. 



Convection should gradually intensify this afternoon before moving

into the High Plains later today. Isolated hail is possible with the

initial cellular storms, but steep lapse rates and a relatively dry

sub-cloud layer should favor strong/isolated severe gusts.

Clustering of outflow could also support a gust of 75+ mph.



While some severe risk is expected to increase over the next few

hours, overall forcing remains weak. This, along with lingering

inhibition and modest buoyancy, suggest storm organization will be

limited. As such, a WW currently appears unlikely, though trends

will be monitored should any more focused corridors of severe

potential emerge.



..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/05/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...



LAT...LON   37500507 37290356 37160187 36910112 36640081 36240084

            35870114 35460254 35270324 35140412 35130475 35040533

            35120552 35360602 35600619 35920621 36310618 36700589

            37350549 37500507 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN