ACUS11 KWNS 032036

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 032035 

NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-032230-



Mesoscale Discussion 1553

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0335 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Areas affected...Portions of western/central North Dakota...far

eastern Montana...northeast Wyoming...and northwest South Dakota



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 032035Z - 032230Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered storms possible this afternoon/evening, posing a

threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. Watch

issuance is possible.



DISCUSSION...Clear skies throughout the afternoon have allowed

surface temperatures to rise upper 80s and low 90s F amid a

relatively moist low-level airmass, characterized by dew point

temperatures in the low to mid 50s in northeast Wyoming/southeast

Montana to the mid/upper 60s and a few 70 F obs across North Dakota.

This is resulting in a west-east instability gradient ranging from

500-3000 J/kg. Visible satellite shows an area of deepening

convection forming in northeast Wyoming, likely in association with

an approaching mid-level trough.



The expectation is for the aforementioned convection to mature and

become more widespread, as forcing for ascent continues to

overspread the region. Scattered storms are expected, though

intensity may be somewhat limited in the short-term due to

relatively weaker instability/shear in proximity. As storms move

northeast with time, they should encounter greater instability while

deep-layer shear increases with the approaching wave. Meanwhile,

isolated storm development is possible across western/central North

Dakota. Forecast soundings/obs indicate convective temperatures in

the mid-90s F, which is supported by some areas of deepening

convection across the state.



Initial storms will likely be cellular in nature, posing a threat

for large hail and perhaps a tornado. With time, storms by grow

upscale, posing more of a threat for damaging winds. Given this

severe storm potential, watch issuance is possible later this

afternoon/evening for parts of the region.



..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...



LAT...LON   44100432 43730551 43880599 45110588 46680514 48290388

            48800218 48950134 48240068 47060061 45960143 45420189

            45110230 44100432 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN