ACUS11 KWNS 031958

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 031957 

MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-032200-



Mesoscale Discussion 1552

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0257 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...



Valid 031957Z - 032200Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484

continues.



SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will spread east-southeast through

early evening. Damaging winds will remain the primary hazard, with

isolated large hail possible as well.



DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell that initially formed in

southwest NY has produced a swath of damaging winds (with measured

gusts of 49-53 kts in the BGM vicinity) and large hail, reported up

to golf-ball size thus far. Additional updrafts have formed in both

its forward and trailing flank, which should help sustain an

organized cluster to the east-southeast over the next few hours with

cold pool temperatures dipping into the upper 50s. With upper 80s to

around 90 F temperatures from the Lower Hudson Valley east and

south, a swath of damaging winds appears probable through early

evening. Other multicell clusters will be capable of mainly isolated

strong gusts as they impinge on the warmer boundary layer across the

coastal plain.



..Grams.. 07/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...



LAT...LON   42187463 42407409 42507354 42387219 41987129 41637128

            41107197 40677341 40437402 40367451 40527529 40817563

            41117578 41457584 41647508 42187463 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN