ACUS11 KWNS 031657

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 031657 

MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-031900-



Mesoscale Discussion 1548

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1157 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Areas affected...the Northeast



Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 



Valid 031657Z - 031900Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging winds and isolated severe

hail will be possible as initially isolated storms increase across

parts of the Northeast. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is

likely.



DISCUSSION...Initial sustained storm development is underway across

southwest NY, with scattered agitated CU over northeast PA and

southeast NY. A plume of moderate buoyancy will expand eastward from

western/central PA and southwest NY, aiding in strengthening

convective intensity as storms mature. A strong mid-level westerly

jetlet atop already veered and weak low-level winds will yield

hodograph elongation. Combined with weak low-level ascent, the setup

should support generally semi-discrete cells with transient

mid-level updraft rotation. As such, isolated severe hail will be

possible and the overall coverage of the convective wind threat

might be subdued until late-afternoon clustering becomes more

probable.



..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...



LAT...LON   42777681 42857547 43117355 42927285 42507218 42057209

            41497245 40917352 40807456 41037586 41427685 42297745

            42777681 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN