ACUS11 KWNS 031617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031617 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031815- Mesoscale Discussion 1547 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025 Areas affected...New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483... Valid 031617Z - 031815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 483 continues. SUMMARY...Primary severe potential, from isolated to scattered damaging winds, will be largely focused across central/eastern Maine and far southeast New Hampshire. Potential exists for a separate area of storms over the Champlain Valley to intensify downstream later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken thin band of quasi-linear convection is ongoing from northern ME to the NH/MA border area. The recent consolidation into linear structures should modulate the earlier large hail threat. But this will support an increasing damaging wind risk as storms impinge on a warm/unstable boundary layer downstream. Low to mid 80s surface temperatures combined with dew points holding in the low to mid 60s is yielding modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Strong gusts will be possible as this initial round spreads off the coast/into NB. Farther west, stabilization in the wake of this leading convection will yield a lull in severe potential. But the primary lobe of ascent supporting convection across the Champlain Valley into QC should spread across at least northern VT/NH into western ME through late afternoon. There should be an adequate gap of destabilization between the two regimes for a marginal severe threat, although there is below-average confidence on whether sufficient recovery will occur for a scattered damaging wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV... LAT...LON 45007271 46187063 46966808 46706719 45206680 44646705 42387090 42437174 43017147 43327174 43607241 43777324 44017400 44487354 45007271 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN