ACUS11 KWNS 031407

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 031407 

MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-031600-



Mesoscale Discussion 1546

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0907 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025



Areas affected...New England



Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 



Valid 031407Z - 031600Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms

appear increasingly likely across parts of New England into this

afternoon. One or two Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be

issued before midday as storms intensify eastward.



DISCUSSION...Two areas of ongoing convection, one along the ME/QC

border and the other near the NY/VT border vicinity, should

intensify as they spread east across parts of New England into

midday. 12Z CAR sounding sampled a moderate combination of MLCAPE

and effective bulk shear with convective temperature in the upper

70s. 14Z surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low

80s with abundant insolation ahead of both convective areas. While

the 12Z HRRR appears to be poorly handling the near-term scenario,

it does suggest another round of strong to potentially severe

convection may emanate eastward from ongoing storms across the Saint

Lawrence Valley near northern NY. A mix of isolated severe hail with

a predominant threat of scattered strong to localized severe gusts

producing damaging winds seems probable.



..Grams/Mosier.. 07/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...



LAT...LON   46086650 44986752 43766937 42547080 42357142 42407258

            42577335 43197332 43997237 44717200 45007240 45337216

            46427037 46976937 47356811 47126737 46086650 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN