ACUS11 KWNS 030452

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 030452 

IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030645-



Mesoscale Discussion 1545

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025



Areas affected...Southeast SD...northeast NE...northwest IA...and

far southwest MN



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 030452Z - 030645Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe hail will be possible with

the stronger storms tonight.



DISCUSSION...In response to weak low-level warm advection, isolated

thunderstorms are developing along the northeastern periphery of a

large-scale ridge. Here, 30-40 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow is

yielding an elongated/mostly straight hodograph (around 30 kt of

effective shear). This wind profile, coupled with an influx of steep

midlevel lapse rates atop a shallow low-level stable layer, may

support a couple elevated/transient supercell structures -- capable

of producing isolated severe hail. Given the weak forcing for

ascent, storm longevity and overall evolution is uncertain.



..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/03/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...



LAT...LON   42229747 43049896 43489895 44059853 44239784 44049706

            43639595 43099519 42469511 42069558 41969661 42229747 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN