ACUS11 KWNS 022145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022145 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-022345- Mesoscale Discussion 1542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Nevada...western Utah and far northwest Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022145Z - 022345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for sporadic severe gusts through this evening. Weak buoyancy and limited organization potential suggest a WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery showed scattered high-base showers and thunderstorms ongoing over much of the southern Great Basin. Aided by ascent from broad western US troughing and diurnal heating, additional convective development appears likely through this evening. Weak buoyancy above a deeply mixed boundary layer will support strong evaporation potential in thunderstorm downdrafts, with MLCL heights greater than 2000m AGL. In combination with weak vertical shear, a pulse multicellular mode is favored, with the stronger storm clusters capable of sporadic severe gusts. Given the limited potential for storm organization, a more widespread severe risk appears unlikely. Convection will gradually diminish in coverage this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. However, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely to continue overnight with occasional potential for strong downdrafts given the dry low-level air mass. A WW is unlikely given the limited nature of the threat. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 36681684 37901646 39401587 40131647 40761605 40701390 39751259 38481244 37771248 37081278 36341324 35791396 35671512 35761573 36681684 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH